MODEL SEASONAL ARIMA BOX-JENKINS DALAM PERAMALAN PENJUALAN SURAT KABAR HARIAN SERAMBI INDONESIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31100/histogram.v6i2.2407Kata Kunci:
Deret Waktu, SARIMA, Serambi IndonesiaAbstrak
Peramalan penjualan merupakan hal yang lumrah dilakukan dalam era persaingan global yang tinggi saat ini. Di dunia industri informasi, industri penyebaran berita marak didistribusikan dengan berita digital. PT. Aceh Grafika masih memproduksi surat kabar cetak yaitu harian Serambi Indonesia. Perusahaan ini ingin mendapatkan model peramalan penjualan surat kabar Serambi Indonesia untuk dasar produksidi periode-periode selanjutnya. Metode time series yang dapat digunakan untuk meramalkan penjualan salah satunya adalah model Seasonal ARIMA Box-Jenkins atau yang lebih dikenal dengan metode Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini berupa data penjualan surat kabar harian Serambi Indonesia dari tanggal 1 Januari 2021 hingga 31 Desember 2021. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu memperoleh model peramalan terbaik dari data penjualan surat kabar harian dan memperoleh hasil peramalan penjualan surat kabar harian untuk bulan Januari hingga Maret tahun 2022. Hasil yang diperoleh dalam penelitian ini adalah model SARIMA terbaik untuk meramalkan penjualan surat kabar harian yaitu ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)7. Secara keseluruhan penjualan surat kabar harian mengalami peningkatan pada Minggu pertama bulan Januari dan kembali mengalami penurunan pada Minggu akhir bulan Maret. Nilai rata-rata peramalan penjualan surat kabar harian untuk bulan Januari hingga Maret tahun 2022 berkisaran 8.762 oplah per hari.
Referensi
Anwar, Samsul. (2017). Peramalan Suhu Udara Jangka Pendek di Kota Banda Aceh dengan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Malikussaleh Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology, Vol. 5. No. 1 (2017), 6-12.
Chatfield, C. (2004). The Analysis Of Time Series: An introduction (6th ed). Chapman & Hall/CRC.
Chatfield, C., & Xing, H. (2019). The Analysis Of Time Series: An introduction with R (Seventh edition). CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group.
Chang, P. C., Wang Y. W., & Liu C. H. (2007). The Development of Weighted Evolving Fuzzy
Neural Network for PCB Sales Forecasting. Expert System with Application. 32, 86-89.
Hyndman, Rob J., & Anne B. Koehler. (2006). “Another Look at Measures of Forecast Accuracy.†International Journal of Forecasting, 22(4), 679-688.
Wei, W. W. S. (2006). Time series analysis: Univariate and multivariate methods (2nd ed). Pearson Addison Wesley.
Woodward, W. A., Gray, H. L., & Elliott, A. C. (2017). Applied time series analysis, with R (Second edition). CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group.
Anwar, Samsul. (2017). Peramalan Suhu Udara Jangka Pendek di Kota Banda Aceh dengan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Malikussaleh Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology, Vol. 5. No. 1 (2017), 6-12.
Chatfield, C. (2004). The Analysis Of Time Series: An introduction (6th ed). Chapman & Hall/CRC.
Chatfield, C., & Xing, H. (2019). The Analysis Of Time Series: An introduction with R (Seventh edition). CRC Press, Taylor and Francis Group.
Chang, P. C., Wang Y. W., & Liu C. H. (2007). The Development of Weighted Evolving Fuzzy
Neural Network for PCB Sales Forecasting. Expert System with Application. 32, 86-89.
Hyndman, Rob J., & Anne B. Koehler. (2006). “Another Look at Measures of Forecast Accuracy.†International Journal of Forecasting, 22(4), 679-688.
Wei, W. W. S. (2006). Time series analysis: Univariate and multivariate methods (2nd ed). Pearson Addison Wesley.
Woodward, W. A., Gray, H. L., & Elliott, A. C. (2017). Applied time series analysis, with R (Second edition). CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group.
Unduhan
Diterbitkan
Terbitan
Bagian
Citation Check
Lisensi
Please find the rights and licenses in Histogram: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika. By submitting the article/manuscript, the author(s) accept this policy.
1. License
The non-commercial use of the article will be governed by the Creative Commons Attribution license as currently displayed on Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International.
2. Author's Warranties
The author warrants that the article is original, written by a stated author(s), has not been published before, contains no unlawful statements, does not infringe the rights of others, is subject to copyright that is vested exclusively in the author and free of any third party rights, and that any necessary written permissions to quote from other sources have been obtained by the author(s).
3. User Rights
Histogram: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika's spirit is to disseminate articles published for free. Under the Creative Commons license, Histogram: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika permits users to copy, distribute, display, and perform the work for non-commercial purposes only. Users will also need to attribute authors and Histogram: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika when distributing works in the journal.
4. Rights of Authors
Authors retain all their rights to the published works, such as (but not limited to) the following rights;
- Copyright and other proprietary rights relating to the article, such as patent rights,
- The right to use the substance of the article in one's future works, including lectures and books,
- The right to reproduce the article for one's purposes,
- The right to self-archive the article,
- The right to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the article's published version (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal (Histogram: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika).
5. Co-Authorship
If other authors jointly prepared the article, any author submitting the manuscript warrants that all co-authors have authorized them to agree on this copyright and license notice (agreement) on their behalf and agree to inform their co-authors of the terms of this policy. Histogram: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika will not be held liable for anything arising from the author(s) internal dispute. Histogram: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika will only communicate with the corresponding author.
6. Royalties
This agreement entitles the author to no royalties or other fees. To such an extent that it is legally permissible, the author waives their right to collect royalties relative to the article regarding any use by Histogram: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika.
7. Miscellaneous
Histogram: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika will publish the article (or have it published) in the journal if the editorial process is completed. Histogram: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika h editors may modify the article to a style of punctuation, spelling, capitalization, referencing, and usage that deems appropriate. The author acknowledges that the article may be published to be publicly accessible, and such access will be free of charge for the readers, as mentioned in point 3.
